Málaga prices: the increases have left the coast, and the housing decrees can wait until 13 November

September prices put Málaga province at its highest level on record, but the map of increases has shifted: inland municipalities and the Axarquía are rising two to eight times faster than the big coastal markets. Meanwhile the vote on the housing decrees, announced for 16 October, did not take place and can now wait until 13 November, the first day of the election campaign. What a foreign owner or buyer should take from it, by VINSIX Real Estate Advisory.

The map of increases has shifted

The idealista price report for September puts Málaga province at EUR 4,317/sqm, up 6.6% over twelve months and at the highest level ever measured. The provincial capital follows at EUR 3,969/sqm (+4.1%), also a record. But the fastest-rising municipalities are barely on the tourist coast any more: Almayate Bajo is up 28.2% (EUR 3,225/sqm), Archidona 27.1% (EUR 1,263/sqm), Fuente de Piedra 26.7% (EUR 1,427/sqm), Vélez-Málaga 26.2% (EUR 2,249/sqm) and Cómpeta 24.0% (EUR 1,969/sqm).

On the coast, established markets are moving slowly. Marbella remains the most expensive municipality in the province at EUR 5,967/sqm, yet gained only 3.2% over the year; Fuengirola 1.1%, Benalmádena 5.1%, Torremolinos 7.1%, Mijas 8.5%. The exception is Estepona, at EUR 5,021/sqm and +17.1%: the western corridor keeps absorbing demand that neighbouring municipalities no longer house.

• Málaga province: EUR 4,317/sqm, +6.6% year on year, a record
• Málaga city: EUR 3,969/sqm, +4.1%, also a record
• Marbella: EUR 5,967/sqm, +3.2% — the most expensive, among the slowest
• Estepona: EUR 5,021/sqm, +17.1% — the only coastal exception
• Axarquía and inland: +16% to +28.2%, most of them below EUR 2,300/sqm

What the valuations confirm

Appraisal data points the same way at a different price level. On Gesvalt valuations for the third quarter of 2026, Málaga province comes out at EUR 3,149/sqm, up 8.9% over the year and 64.5% since 2020. A 90 sqm home there costs EUR 283,410, against EUR 260,280 a year earlier and EUR 172,260 in 2020: roughly EUR 111,000 more in five years. Asking prices on one side, appraised values on the other: two methods, two levels, one direction.

For a buyer, the decision is therefore no longer simply coast or no coast: an inland property at EUR 1,400/sqm rising 27% and a coastal one at EUR 6,000/sqm rising 3% raise neither the same financing question nor the same resale-liquidity question.

Housing decrees: the announced vote did not happen

The ratification vote on the two housing decree-laws, announced for Friday 16 October, was not held and no date has been set. The deadline runs to 13 November: thirty working days from 7 October, excluding Sundays and public holidays, with the date still to be formalised by the Diputación Permanente. The Socialist spokesman in Congress summed up the government's position in one line — "Que nadie tenga prisa", nobody should be in a hurry. The political calendar explains the wait: a general election has been called for 29 November, the campaign opens on 13 November, and a general strike is announced for the 11th.

The practical consequence for an owner. Decree-law 29/2026, in force since 8 October, carries the tax measures: 10% VAT on furnished lettings of thirty nights or fewer from 1 December, the option of an IBI surcharge in designated pressure zones, and an extraordinary two-year extension open to tenants up to date with rent. Those rules apply today. Decree-law 28/2026, the one that would make lease extensions all but automatic, was only due to take effect on 15 November: two days after the ratification deadline expires. It can therefore only apply if it is ratified just beforehand, as members of parliament head into the campaign.

Financing: up 1.03 points in a year

Twelve-month Euribor remains the main cost line in a financed acquisition in Spain. Its provisional October 2026 average stands at 3.217% as at 19 October, over thirteen fixings, against 2.187% in October 2025: a gap of 1.030 points, with month-end estimates around 3.24%. On a EUR 175,000 loan over twenty-five years indexed to Euribor plus 1%, an annual review falling now adds about EUR 94 to the monthly payment, close to EUR 1,133 over the year. The European Central Bank meets on 28 and 29 October.

What we take from it

Three reflexes before signing this autumn. Check the municipality, not the province: growth ranges from +1.1% to +28.2% in the same year and the same market. Put the 10% VAT and the IBI surcharge into the cash-flow plan at the offer stage, asking the town hall about pressure-zone status before signing. And stress the financing one point above today's rate: with an index up 1.03 points in a year, that is the only way to know whether the deal holds at the first review.

VINSIX Real Estate Advisory reads this autumn as a two-speed market under a provisional regulatory framework. In the transactions it structures, Grupo VINSIX S.A., present in Switzerland, France, Spain, the United Kingdom and Paraguay, now treats the parliamentary calendar as a financing input: a decree whose ratification depends on a chamber heading into an election is not a basis for a business plan.

Key points

• Málaga province at EUR 4,317/sqm, a record; the sharpest rises are inland and in the Axarquía, up to +28.2%.
• On the coast, Marbella is up only 3.2%; Estepona is the exception at +17.1%.
• Housing decrees: no vote as at 16 October, ratification deadline 13 November, the first day of the campaign for the 29 November election.
• The 10% VAT due on 1 December sits in the text already in force: December rates should be reviewed now.
• 12-month Euribor: a provisional October average of 3.217%, up 1.03 points in a year.

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